Tuesday, January 27, 2009

WFC is not in as bad of shape as other banks

Wells Fargo, in my opinion, is the baby being thrown out with the bath water. It is being thrown into the grouping of Citigroup and Bank of America which have both been recently hit hard with toxic mortgage assets. But the glaring difference is that those two banks bought brokers that were selling the very highly leveraged credit default swaps. And Wells is just buying Wachovia's bad mortgages. The leverage of the swaps is what I think is killing C and BAC and I don't think the market is taking this into account.

Some people are thinking the purchase of Wachovia is going to bring Wells Fargo down but I think this was a great purchase. It gives WFC practically a nationwide footprint, hundreds of billion in deposits and a great run bank that just so happend to make a bad purchase of Golden West...the source of the majority of bad mortgages. After the tax break Wells is going to get from this purchase, they are basically getting Wachovia for free. I think hindsight will show that this purchase was a brilliant move. Right now WFC is trading at $16.19. My guess is that we are going to see the stock do very, very well over the next couple of years because of this merger and because the economic recovery. Now...I will give full disclosure, I just recently bought some WFC. But I used to work at the bank and I know how well run it is and I have no doubt that they will be one of the best banks in the country (if not the best) after all the smoke clears.

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